In 1997, William Strauss and Neil Howe wrote a book entitled:
“The Fourth Turning”
The subtitle reveals the rest of the story: “What the Cycles of History tell us about America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny.”
Here are their findings:
• The FIRST TURNING is a HIGH, an upbeat era of strengthening institutions and weakening individualism, when a new civic order implants and the old values regime decays.
• The SECOND TURNING is an AWAKENING, a passionate era of spiritual upheaval, when the civic order comes under attack from a new values regime.
• The THIRD TURNING is an UNRAVELING, a downcast era of strengthening individualism and weakening institutions, when the old civic order decays and a new values regime implants.
• The FOURTH TURNING is a CRISIS, a decisive era of secular upheaval, when the values regime propels the replacement of the old civic order with a new one.
The authors make it very clear that these turnings, these rhythms of history do not reveal the outcome of the coming crisis; all they suggest is the timing and dimension.